Solar Panel in 2023: Perc, HJT or TOPCon? - adnlite

is the year of the inflection point of battery technology change. The only theme of the photovoltaic industry is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Due to its high conversion efficiency, N-type batteries have gradually entered the stage and been accepted by people.

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Perc Factory Line

The difference between the so-called P-type and N-type batteries is actually very simple, mainly due to the different positions of the two.

• P-type Silicon Substrate Solar Cells: diffuse phosphorus on P-type semiconductor materials to form N+/P-type structures. The diffusion process is simple and the cost is low, and currently occupies the mainstream market of solar cells. But the highest conversion efficiency has a bottleneck. PERC
• N-type Silicon Substrate Solar Cell: Boron is implanted on the N-type semiconductor material to form a P+/N-type structure. As a high-efficiency battery, it has high minority carrier lifetime and no light-induced attenuation characteristics. But the manufacturing cost is higher. TOPCon, HJT

N-type TOPCon and HJT are representatives of emerging high-efficiency battery technologies that have received the most attention in recent years. Previously, mass production was not possible due to cost issues. In , leading companies in component-side integration have successively launched large-scale production and expansion actions for TOPCon. This marks the "first year" of large-scale mass production of N-type technology batteries.

TOPCon Factory Line

The advantages of TOPCon technology are:

• Selective collection of carriers can be achieved. This plays a critical surface passivation role.
• There is a "pinhole" effect on the back of the TOPCon battery, which brings good conductivity.
• The metal electrodes are not in direct contact with the silicon-based material. This further reduces series resistance, improving fill factor and conversion efficiency.
• The structure of the TOPCon battery can transmit light on the back, and it directly has good double-sided power generation capability.

The theoretical efficiency of 28.7% of TOPCon batteries far exceeds that of P-type batteries, and the current mass production/highest efficiency exceeds 24.5%/25% respectively. And it has the advantages of low attenuation, high double-sided rate, low temperature coefficient, etc., and the power generation gain effect in the terminal power station is obvious.

TOPCon is compatible with the existing PERC production line, and the transformation cost for a single GW is about 50 million yuan. Faced with the pressure of large-scale PERC production line equipment depreciation accrual, upgrades and renovations prolong the service life of equipment. Superimposed on SMBB technology and the advancement of localization of silver paste, the advantages in improving efficiency and reducing costs are more obvious. It is expected to be a cost-effective route choice in the next 2-3 years.

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N-type Battery Cost Advantages

Silicon Wafer

Due to factors such as silicon materials, silicon wafer thinning progress, and non-silicon costs, the cost of N-type TOPCon silicon wafers is 0.66 yuan/W. 0.03 yuan/W higher than PERC.

Solar Cell

The cost of TOPCon is 0.08 yuan/W higher. The cost is 0.03 yuan/W higher mainly due to the consumption and price of silver paste. The total of equipment depreciation and non-silicon cost is 0.05 yuan/W higher.

Components

The cost of TOPCon integrated components is 0.05 yuan/W higher. With the increase in wattage per unit area of TOPCon modules, the cost of related auxiliary materials can be reduced. Non-silicon components have an advantage of 0.03 yuan/W.

Overall, the production cost of TOPCon integrated modules is 0.05 yuan/W higher than that of PERC. In the short to medium term, the cost advantage of TOPCon is higher than that of HJT. Since TOPCon's integrated production capacity has room for cost reduction, TOPCon in the second half of the year is expected to be equal to PERC.

Summary of The Advantages of N-type Solar Cell

Looking at the advantages of superimposed conversion efficiency improvement, low attenuation, low temperature coefficient, and high double-sided ratio, it is estimated that TOPCon modules can bring a premium of over 0.13 yuan/W. With the continuous improvement of TOPCon battery conversion efficiency, TOPCon's battery efficiency and cost advantages have emerged. This will further enhance the competitiveness of components in the market.

Currently, at least half of the over 300GW PERC production lines in the industry can be upgraded to TOPCon. With PERC production expansion coming to a standstill, TOPCon battery production capacity will continue to be released in 22-23 years.

Generally speaking, HJT battery is more advanced than TOPCON technology. Compared with P-type batteries, HJT has undergone structural changes. TOPCON is more like tinkering with existing technology, while HJT is more of a revolutionary change. It can even be said that TOPCON is an intermediate product in the transition period from PERC battery to HJT. For now, TOPCON and HJT are fairly evenly divided. However, with the development of technology, the advantages of HJT may gradually expand. It can be said: "TOPCon wins in the present, while HJT wins in the future".

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